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Salil Mehta, a statistician and former leader a former director of analytics for the Treasury Departments $700 billion TARP program, said there is a 13% chance of a short-term bear market, or fall of at least 20% from a recent peak. He sees a more than one-in-three chance of a downturn of at least 10% or better, and a nearly three-out-of-four likelihood of a 5% drop (see table below): Source: Salil Mehta Probability of market downturns A 5% drop would effectively wipe out year-to-date gains for the Dow and S&P 500 and chop the Nasdaqs rise in 2017 in half. But such a move isnt out of the ordinary, and some even view retreats of that order as cathartic. So far, however, the market has proved to be resilient, albeit relatively rangebound, even as Trump rattled nerves with his failure to get a vote on a bill to replace and repeal Obamacare. The apparent dysfunction has fueled skepticism about Trumps ability to win approval of corporate tax cuts, which had been the backbone of the markets ebullience. The struggle for direction I would say post the ACA-replacement failure, the market is really likely to be a bit directionless, David Lafferty, chief market strategist at Natixis Global Asset Management, told MarketWatch. Lafferty said the market may be stuck in a rut with an improving global economy and earnings creating a floor for stocks and lofty valuations capping further sharp gains. The movement that youve seen in the middle has been based on the optimism around Trump, Lafferty said. If [Trump] is going to struggle and the markets already gone up 12%, the more [Trump-inspired] expectations are called into question, and the market for bonds are going to get a bid, driving down yields, he said. Vassilis Dagioglu, a portfolio manager at Mellon Capital, which manages $360 billion, said fundamentals, including U.S. first-quarter earnings season, which will kick off mid-April, are expected to continue a recent trend of improvement . Analysts have made fewer cuts to earnings estimates than in previous quarters. In light of that, Dagioglu said he is upbeat on U.S. equities, though he sees markets outside the U.S. as offering better value. We will see some pullbacks, 5% is likely, but barring some kind of external shock, the odds of a 15% or 20% drop are actually quite low at this point, he speculated.
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